FWI challenge: Have the least likely nation to start WW3 instigate WW3

At this point, I think the USA, South Korea, Iran, North Korea, Russia and China are the “usual suspects” when it comes to hypothetical WW3 scenarios.

This gave me an idea for the following challenge: create a plausible scenario where the instigator of WW3 is one or more nations that most people wouldn’t think would be capable of starting WW3.

Rules: 1. Drones are allowed, nukes are not. 2. Chemical weapons are allowed. 3. The usual suspect countries mentioned above are allowed to get involved in this hypothetical WW3, but they just can’t be the attacking countries. They are only allowed to go on the defensive. 4. You are allowed to use false flag operations involving the instigating country in your scenario to start the war.