How bad is the win streak event really? Answering with statistics!
So as you may know the upcoming battle event will require a win streak of 5 to obtain the gold emblem as opposed to a set number of wins like last time (45 wins in that case). It's pretty unanimous in the community that this is a bad idea as it makes it really difficult for non-meta decks to thrive which is an odd decision for a game that is pretty casual oriented, this coming from someone that uses almost entirely meta decks (and also dragonite sometimes because it's so fun).
However, how bad is it really? I wrote some python code to calculate the average number of total battles it would take you to complete the 5 streak event for a given win probability per game (can think of it as a win streak) based on 100k simulations per every probability value, in increments of 0.01, and compare it to the previous event, and plot it.
If you're a 40% win rate player or lower, you'll have a tougher time this time around, while if you're getting an above 50% win rate you should be able to finish faster on average. The intersection happens between 0.44 and 0.45. Outside this range, a 20% win rate player will play on average about 3900 games, which essentially means you're shiny hunting at that point.
The key thing is that the previous event saved progress, and this one doesn't, making it far more volatile, so really a 60% win streak player can be unlucky and actually take longer for example. It's also worth noting that more people will likely be using meta decks, meaning the win rates of non-meta decks should go down from the previous event.
And that's it, do you think based on this data that there is still hope for non-meta decks? Should they do other such events in the future?