2025 Predictions: I crunched the numbers, so you don't have to

Hey all! Instead of doing schoolwork, I calculated out the basic schedule details for this coming year. Not sure if there's another place were this or similar info is available, but figured I would publicize this even if one exists. If anyone notices mathematical or logical errors, reach out or comment! Thank you <3

TLDR: Expect every yet-to-debut UR to drop in 2025. We will most likely catch up to CN server around Christmas25/CNY26.

ALSO TLDR: If you find saving hard, it makes sense! We're way short on diamonds vs CN (~42k in dailies, and ~113k for owners of both privilege cards), just by virtue of trying to catch up a 699 day difference. When we do catch up to CN the schedule should slow down a LOT, to only about ~6 UR debuts per year -- which will make it a good idea to skip some events that debut in 2025 and save for reruns rather than to try to get everything now. It should be way easier to save diamonds in 2026 and beyond.

The short of it:

  • CN server averages 5.4 UR debut events per year (6 for the last 2 years)
    • Global server averages 10 UR debuts per year (for the last 1.5y, how far back my records go).
    • Once we get CNY24, global server will be short only 3 UR/MR events from CN server
  • So, considering global server averages 10 UR debuts/year, we are behind by 3 UR events, and we can reasonably expect that CN server will have 6 UR debuts during the 2025 yearly cycle...
  • Then this year, should the schedule keep going as it has been, we will catch up to CN server (on UR debuts) around CNY26, if not Christmas25.

The long of it:

I've kept a record of total events for the past 1.5 years, since July 1, 2023 up to Jan 30, 2025 (exactly 1y 6m).

In total, in that timeframe on the global server, there have been...

  • 52 total events
  • 35 of which have been debuts
    • 15 UR debuts
    • 20 SSR debuts
  • 17 of which have been reruns
    • 6 UR reruns
    • 11 SSR reruns

This averages out, over 1.5y, to...

  • 34.7 events per year
  • 23 debuts per year
    • 10 UR debuts per year
    • 13.3 SSR debuts per year

Compared to CN server, which over 5 years (excluding pre-CNY20 suits, as I'm going off the CNY-Christmas cycle), averages...

  • 5.4 UR debuts/year
    • 5/year in the first 3 years, 6/year in the most recent 2 years
  • 11.6 SSR debuts/year
    • consistently 11 or 12/year

Why is saving so hard? Why are we catching up to CN server at all? Well, here are the numbers for you!

For all players, the amount of potential diamond income we'll have lost in dailies by catching up to CN server (Aug 6, 2019 - July 5, 2021)...

  • 699 days difference
    • dailies = 60 diamonds/day
  • resulting in 41,940 diamonds for consistent players.
    • vs recharge cost: $513 (including the first recharge double diamonds for each tier)

For diamond card holders, if they had held their card(s) consistently...

  • 699 days difference
    • gem card = 56 gems/day
    • privilege card = 106 gems/day
  • resulting in...
    • an additional 39,144 diamonds for consistent gem card holders
      • For the cost of ~$116
      • vs recharge cost: ~$384 (including all first recharge double diamonds)
    • an additional 74,094 diamonds for consistent privilege card holders
      • For the cost of ~$233
      • vs recharge cost: ~$1,048.90 (including all first recharge double diamonds)
    • For holders of both cards, an additional 113,238 diamonds total.
      • For the cost of ~$349
      • vs recharge cost: ~$1,701.30 (including all first recharge double diamonds)

All in all, this is what makes saving diamonds so difficult for global players. To save efficiently, I would recommend ONLY going for events you REALLY love this year, as it will be much easier to save for reruns once the schedule (most likely) slows down in 2026 and beyond.