Consider changing you allocations in the next few days

Throw away account, but Fed here and long time lurker.

It's standard Boglehead advice to just sit throug corrections, but hear me out here. This is being driven by the arrogance and stupidity of one man, and this is not a normal market reaction.

1) Trump appears committed to these tariffs and it seems that no one in his inner circle has been able to talk him out of it despite it being clear that many people in his inner circle thought tariffs are misguided. He is convinced that there will be "temporary pain" but some long term benefit. He seems unlikely to be swayed by concessions. No matter what disruption happens now, it seems he has prepared himself to accept it.

2) The full effect of these tariffs is difficult to model, but there are many businesses that seem unlikely to survive even a few months of the tariffs. As they fold, other businesses that depend on them will see disruption too. It could have a cascading effect that is virtually impossible to accurately forecast and will get worse as the tariffs continue. It is not impossible that the compounding effects could trigger a substantial recession.

3) The tariffs will likely change inflationary expectations, and lead to another sustained period of the Fed fighting inflation.

This situation is fundamentally altering my personal valuations of the risks involved and if you feel the same, you should also consider changing your allocations. If you change now, you may sit out some gains that happen in the next weeks / month before the situation is clarified, or you could avoid an even worse correction. It's up to you. But remember that here there is a reason why you might consider changing your allocations.