BeerSheets 2022-08-26 (Nearly Football Edition)
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New Google Sheets Option with Keepers and Auction Mode!
Welcome to BeerSheets! If you have any questions, the best way to reach me is via a DM to @BeerSheets on Twitter. I can also respond here on Reddit but it's more difficult to keep track of conversations.
What is this?
These are cheat sheets intended to help players in both snake draft and auction drafts. It uses a combination of value based drafting combined with a few of my own calculations to establish player value, positional scarcity, auction value, and tiers.
How do I get my sheet?
Click on the helpful link at the top of the post. Or this one. It will direct you to a form that you can fill out. If your sheet is one of the previously generated formats it will link to it, otherwise a request for a custom sheet will automatically be generated. Custom sheets are uploaded every day (often multiple times a day).
What's new this year?
For the most part things have been pretty solid. We're up to 23 sources for projections, and once again we're partnering with 4for4 for the DST section and their really cool strength of schedule system. The biggest changes are the addition of TE Premium and PPFD, which are located in the request section!
More recently I tweaked some of the algorithms so that the tiering system is more natural. I incorporated the Fisher-Jenkins algorithm to determine tier cuts, and also increased the number of tiers used for RB and WR to add a bit more granularity. Finally I added a version that works on Google Sheets and lets you also hide the value of keepers. It also adds functionality for auction drafts.
What are the calculations based on?
I use as many projections as I can find to establish a range of projected values for each player. I use a Value Based Drafting approach to calculate the player value for each projection, and then average those values to get a final number. The standard deviation of those value projections are used to determine tiers. A key component of value based drafting is establishing the baseline player, which I set based on the "player-games" method. Essentially what I do is look at how many games on average each ranked player (RB1, RB2, etc) played the following year, and how many games are needed (#Teams x #Positions x 16 Weeks). The number of players needed to produce enough games to reach the desired quantity is the baseline. The original article is gone but /u/pattertj does a great job of covering things here. Auction values are calculated using this method.
As part of our partnership with 4for4 we're using their rankings for the DST, as well as their unique Strength of Schedule estimations to determine which opponents will be easier or harder. 4for4 offers this capability for every position and is one of my favorite features.
What do the columns mean?
Player Name: The name of the player.
TM/BW: The player's team and bye week.
ECR: The player's Expert Consensus Ranking based on FantasyPros, formatted in a "round|pick" format so that you can also use it to judge ADP. In general ADP and ranking is closely correlated, and players with no formatting are taken in the same round as their ranking. Values in blue mean the ADP is more than a round before the rank. Values in orange mean the ADP is more than a round after the rank. These ADP predictions do not apply to 2QB leagues!
F, VAL, C: Player value in terms of Floor, Mean, and Ceiling. The average value of multiple projections relative to a baseline player (numbers shown in the title bar). Floor and Ceiling are the average value with the standard deviation of the projection either subtracted or added. In auction sheets these values are converted to dollar amounts. Value is designed to be compared between positions.
PS: Positional Scarcity. The percentage of player value remaining in that position once that player (and all players above him) are drafted. This is the means by which you can determine the opportunity cost of selecting one position over another.
What does the shading mean?
The alternating white and gray shading represents different tiers of player projections based on the distribution of values from the multiple sources I use. Tiers are groups of players whose projections overlap as a result of the mean and standard deviation of their particular data set. Individual projections are notoriously unreliable (the top experts are lucky to be right 60% of the time), so players who are shaded the same should be considered roughly comparable in value.
Will you share the original data file?
Nope.
Can you do a sheet for my 13 player 2QB/1RB/3WR/2FLX/TE/DST/2PK league with 0.314 PPR and 9 PPTD?
Fill out the form at the top of the post to request a custom sheet. I will try to get it uploaded a week before your draft. If your settings aren't in the drop-down menus click the 'Show Custom Ranges' checkmark above the Teams value.
Will you do IDP?
I would like to, but it's difficult. The problem with IDP is that there aren't a lot of projections and the tiers become massive.
Will you do Dynasty?
This method doesn't work for dynasty, as the projections are only for one year. What I have done is put together a dynasty app that you can check out at Beersheets.app.
What's the best way to use this? Which categories should I pay attention to the most?
I recently did a mock draft with Evan and Jeff from Football Absurdity; you can check it out here.
The real meat of the sheet is value and positional scarcity. What I like to do is start off with value and see which players are available within each position that have similar value. I look at tier to get a sense of how many players are "clumped" together and see if I can't get value later on. It should be noted that the tiers are not absolute; comparing the last player of one tier to the first player of the tier below him is perfectly reasonable. Look at the floor and ceiling information to get a better sense of an individual player's expectations.
Positional scarcity shows how much value is remaining in each position after a player is taken. In general you want the player with the lower PS, because there's less value remaining once that player is gone. This will also give you a sense of just how much value an individual player takes from the "pool" of points for each skill.
Rankings are a great way to determine when a player should be drafted, when that player is actually being drafted, and also differentiating between players in a tier. They're a good way to pick between players who share a tier once I've decided which skill position I want to draft. It should be noted that rankings are limited to contemporary scoring and rosters; the more nonstandard your league the less useful the rankings may be.
What's this about being able to highlight cells dynamically?
The Excel sheets have a feature to automatically shade rows based on a value placed on the column to the left of the player's name (the space in between the blocks). If you put a 'y' there the row is highlighted green, 'n' will highlight the row red, 'x' will highlight the row black, and anything else (I use a number) will highlight the row yellow. You can use this to select which players you do and do not want, cross out players that are already drafted, and highlight the players you have on your team.
The Google Sheets version also has the option to put 'k' in that column to delete a player entirely. Useful for keepers. There's also now an auction tab which includes the ability to dynamically update a sheet during auctions.
Who else should I check out?
/u/PeakedInHighSkool is amazing and if you aren't following him you're doing it wrong.
/u/Prayes does actual, real math with his amazing Draft Kit and honestly I wish I knew half as much as he did.
/u/JuiceBoxOne does unspeakable, filthy things to draft rankings which you should really check out.
/u/CanadianSandGoggles does an awesome draft cheat sheet which you should definitely check out.
/u/keepfast does an amazing job with a weekly newsletter that you should be reading.
/u/subvertadown is cool and good.
If there's anyone else, please message me or reply in the comments and I'll be sure to add them.