Opinion: The upcoming Lebanese Presidential Election will determine whether ceasefire is maintained

The stakes have never been higher for Hezbollah in the presidential election on Jan 9th, 2025. The ceasefire agreement quite simply puts the majority of the enforcement burden on the Lebanese Army Forces. The LAF absolutely needs political will and cover to complete its designated mission. Since we are aware that Hezbollah's utmost goal is to circumvent this agreement since, otherwise, their entire purpose of existence is in doubt. Therefore, they will aggressively push for a president that "protects the back of the resistance." While Hezbollah historically enjoyed having the government under its thumb for political cover, that wasn't strictly necessary. But this is not the case anymore today.

However, Israel's position is hardened this time, and they have been clear that the agreement will be implemented by force. So, if Hezbollah is able to get a President who backs them, I expect another round of fighting to take place.