[OC] The 2024 Washington Commanders are the third most unlikely team since 1999 to make the Conference Championship Game (tied with the '99 Rams & '21 Bengals)
Data Source: nflverse R Package + Pro Football Reference (Preseason Super Bowl Odds). I'm not sure exactly at what point the odds were captured i.e right before the regular season started but after the preseason games, or before the preseason. But shouldn't matter too much. Implied Probability is not vig removed
2024 Preseason Odds: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/preseason\_odds.htm.
There are different reasons why each team in the table had low Super Bowl odds. For instance, the odds for '99 Rams and '01 Pats were low mainly b/c of injuries to their starting QBs, but it helped having a future HOFer on the bench. The '11 Niners had the talent but it was Jim Harbaugh's first NFL rodeo.
For the '24 Commanders, it's truly impressive how a brand new coaching staff and front office, and a bunch of new players after just one off-season turned things around. And Dan Quinn has been here before. His '16 Atlanta Falcons were also one of the more unlikely teams to make the Conference Championship game.
I truly think this Commanders team is not content with being a runner-up in the final four. Success in Washington is long overdue after the hell Dan Snyder put his fans through. I hear he's very mad right now.