I think Emilia Perez is genuinely cooked and will likely go home empty handed come Oscars night.

Honestly, I don't think it even really has to wholly do with the controversy surrounding Karla Sofia Gascon. I think it's mainly because the reason why a lot of the industry was rallying around this film was because they viewed it as repudiation against the Trump era of politics. It's portrayal of a transwoman in its lead and the fact that it has some half-baked sociopolitical commentary about Mexico(which some of it also relevant to the U.S. as well), I feel was enough to win a lot of the industry voters over. I think this is akin to "Crash" winning Best Picture in 2004 in the midst of George W. Bush's 2nd term.

However, what completely kills this film's chances is the fact that the spearhead of this film has been outed as someone who has in the past spread hateful rhetoric and H*tler apologia. The fact that Gascon is the lead of this film and has expressed pretty much the opposite of what these Academy voters thinks Emilia Perez stands for, really makes their support waver. Again, I think the industry support for Emilia Perez was more political than it was them actually enjoying the movie.